Publications

Publication titles link to publisher records; replication and open-access materials are linked where available.

Refereed journal articles

• Idle Monetary Policy? Evidence from Monetary Policy Shocks for Pakistan (2026), with M. Ali Choudhary. Economics Letters, 268, 113207.
  Code & data
• Taking the Highway or the Green Road? Conditional Temperature Forecasts under Alternative SSP Scenarios (2026), with Anthoulla Phella and Luis F. Martins. International Journal of Forecasting, published online May 2026.
  Code & data · Open manuscript
• GMM Model Averaging Using Higher Order Approximations (2025), with Luis F. Martins. Econometrics and Statistics, 36, 37–54.
  Replication files · Open manuscript
• LAMP, Informality and Monetary Growth Rules in an Emerging Economy (2025), with Maryam Mirfatah and Paul Levine. Economic Modelling, 143, 106946.
  Code & data
• Predicting Tail Risks and the Evolution of Temperatures (2024), with Anthoulla Phella and Luis F. Martins. Energy Economics, 131, 107286.
  Replication files · Open manuscript
• Institutional Arrangements and Inflation Bias: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach (2023), with Ioannis Lazopoulos and Diana Lima. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 55, 43–76.
  Replication files · Supplement
• Partial Dollarization and Financial Frictions in Emerging Economies (2023), with Paul Levine and Bo Yang. Review of International Economics, 31, 609–651.
  Replication files · Supplement
• The Inflation–Unemployment Trade-Off: Empirical Considerations and a Simple US–Euro Area Comparison (2022), with Young-Bae Kim, Luis F. Martins and Paul Middleditch. Notas Económicas, 54, 9–29.
  Open article
• Individual Incentives and Workers’ Contracts: Evidence from a Field Experiment (2021), with M. Ali Choudhary and Neil Rickman. Oxford Economic Papers, 73, 248–272.
  Replication files · Supplement
• Policy Mandates and Institutional Architecture (2019), with Ioannis Lazopoulos. Journal of Banking & Finance, 100, 122–134.
• Money Growth Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy with an Informal Sector (2019), with Maryam Mirfatah, Zahra Nasrollahi and Paul Levine. International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 11, 5–42.
• Modelling Long Run Comovements in Equity Markets: A Flexible Approach (2014), with Luis F. Martins. Journal of Banking & Finance, 47, 288–295.
• Linear Instrumental Variables Model Averaging Estimation (2014), with Luis F. Martins. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 71, 709–724.
• Time-Varying Cointegration, Identification and Cointegration Spaces (2013), with Luis F. Martins. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 17, 199–209.
• Cointegration Tests under Multiple Regime Shifts: An Application to the Stock Price–Dividend Relationship (2011), with Luis F. Martins. Empirical Economics, 41, 639–662.
• Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Subject to Policy Changes: A Markov Switching Cointegration Approach (2011), with Pataaree Sangduan. Empirical Economics, 41, 371–385.
• The Cost Channel Reconsidered: A Comment Using an Identification-Robust Approach (2010), with Luis F. Martins. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42, 1703–1712.
  Replication files
• An Efficient Test of Fiscal Sustainability (2010), with Pataaree Sangduan. Applied Economics Letters, 17, 1819–1822.
• Soft Landing in a Markov-Switching Economy (2010), with Fernando Alexandre and Pedro Bação. Economics Letters, 107, 169–172.
• How Forward-Looking Is the Fed? Direct Estimates from a Calvo-Type Rule (2009), with Paul Levine and Christopher Spencer. Economics Letters, 104, 92–95.
• New Keynesian Phillips Curves and Potential Identification Failures: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood Analysis (2009), with Luis F. Martins. Journal of Macroeconomics, 31, 561–571.
• Is There Really a Gap between Aggregate Productivity and Technology? (2009), with M. Ali Choudhary. Applied Economics, 41, 3499–3503.
• The Consumption–Wealth Ratio under Asymmetric Adjustment (2008), with Pedro Bação and Fernando Alexandre. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12.
• Volatility in Asset Prices and Long-Run Wealth Effect Estimates (2007), with Pedro Bação and Fernando Alexandre. Economic Modelling, 24, 1048–1064.
• On the Forecasting Ability of ARFIMA Models When Infrequent Breaks Occur (2004), with Luis F. Martins. The Econometrics Journal, 7, 455–475.
• Tests for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison (2003). Econometric Reviews, 22, 411–435.
• Cointegration and the Joint Confirmation Hypothesis (2003). Economics Letters, 78, 17–25.
• Instability in Cointegration Regressions: A Brief Review with an Application to Money Demand in Portugal (2003), with Artur C. B. Lopes and Luis C. Nunes. Applied Economics, 35, 893–900.
• A Simple Method of Testing for Cointegration Subject to Multiple Regime Changes (2002), with Martin Sola and Zacharias Psaradakis. Economics Letters, 76, 213–221.
• Testes de Alteração de Estrutura em Modelos Multivariados: Uma Visita Guiada pela Literatura (2002). Notas Económicas, 16, 16–33.

Books and chapters

• Persistent Cycles and Long-run Covariability in Paleoclimate Time Series (2026), with Luis F. Martins and Anthoulla Phella. Advances in Econometrics, vol. 47A, pp. 147–190.
• Open Economy DSGE Modelling with Applications to Emerging Economies (forthcoming status to confirm), with Leilane Cambara, Maryam Mirfatah and Paul Levine. Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, 2nd ed., Edward Elgar (listed as forthcoming in June 2026 CV).
• An Estimated DSGE Open Economy Model of the Indian Economy with Financial Frictions (2016), with Paul Levine and Bo Yang. Monetary Policy in India, Springer, pp. 455–506.
• The Science and Art of DSGE Modelling: I — Construction and Bayesian Estimation (2013), with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine, Joseph Pearlman and Bo Yang. Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, Edward Elgar.
• The Science and Art of DSGE Modelling: II — Model Comparisons, Model Validation, Policy Analysis and General Discussion (2013), with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine, Joseph Pearlman and Bo Yang. Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, Edward Elgar.
• An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy (2012), with Paul Levine, Joseph Pearlman and Bo Yang. The Oxford Handbook of the Indian Economy, pp. 835–890.
  Replication files

Other publications

• Review of a Bank of Portugal Economic Studies featured paper and article. Spillovers No. 10 (February 2023).
• Central Banks as Bank Supervisors: How Does This Double Role Affect Their Inflation Outcomes? (with Ioannis Lazopoulos and Diana Lima). SUERF Policy Brief No. 172 (2021).

Research and working papers · Code and data · CV · All GitHub repositories