Research

My research combines econometric methods, structural macroeconomic modelling and empirical applications. The descriptions below summarize research manuscripts and projects in progress; they are not necessarily final published abstracts.

Publications

See the complete publication list with DOI links, and publicly released code and data.

Manuscripts under review

Informality and the Inverted Aggregate Demand Logic

With Maryam Mirfatah.

We develop a model with limited asset market participation (LAMP) and informality: when a large share of households consumes its current income, a higher real interest rate can raise rather than lower aggregate demand, inverting the usual logic of monetary policy. We show that informality separates this single boundary into two thresholds. Informal income accruing to hand-to-mouth households lowers the share at which the consumption of savers stops moving with aggregate demand. Expenditure switching towards informal goods raises the share at which demand stops falling when the policy rate rises. Code & data

Climate Change: Across Time and Frequencies

With Luís Aguiar-Conraria, Luis F. Martins and Anthoulla Phella.

Continuous-wavelet methods characterize the evolving association between temperatures and natural and anthropogenic forcings at different frequencies. The empirical results indicate that greenhouse gases, especially CO₂, are important for long-run temperature trends, while shorter-run relationships vary across historical periods. Preprint.

Work in progress

Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks: A Model Averaging Approach

With Roshni Tara.

This project develops and compares estimators that combine external instruments for U.S. monetary policy shocks. Rather than pooling all instruments uncritically, the analysis considers economically distinct proxy families, heterogeneous information sets, weak-instrument diagnostics and robust inference in proxy-SVARs and local projections. An important objective is to distinguish gains from combining informative proxies from biases induced by invalid or heterogeneous instruments.

Furs, Captives and Contested Trade: Conflict and Atlantic Markets in 17th Century North America

With Paul Levine and Neil Rickman.

An economic-history project examining the interaction between disease, trade networks and conflict in the North American Great Lakes region. It asks how changing epidemiological exposure and commercial incentives shaped competition and demographic outcomes, using historically grounded data and empirical modelling.

Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: A FAIR Approach

With Hyejin Park and Mohamed Zahran.

The project examines heterogeneous and asymmetric macroeconomic responses to uncertainty shocks using flexible inference methods. The goal is to establish whether shocks of different sign or size propagate differently and how much conventional linear methods conceal this heterogeneity.

Tariff Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

An estimated Canada–rest-of-world DSGE framework is used to quantify the transmission of Canadian and U.S. tariffs through imported-goods, retail and consumer prices. Policy experiments isolate the implications of systematic monetary reactions, currency pricing conventions and observed historical tariff paths.

Terms of Trade, Import Prices and External Adjustment in Macro Panels

With Forough Ghadamyari.

A large-country-panel empirical counterpart to models of terms-of-trade and import-price adjustment. Dynamic common-correlated-effects methods allow heterogeneous responses and common unobserved factors; the project contrasts long-run panel relations, heterogeneous dynamics and implications for open-economy business-cycle models.

Persistent Cycles, Long-Run Covariability and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

With Luis F. Martins and Anthoulla Phella.

The project studies econometric representations of persistent cycles, identification and long-horizon co-movement in macroeconomic and paleoclimate data. It compares cyclical alternatives and state-space or quasi-maximum-likelihood estimation with flexible damped autoregressive benchmarks, emphasizing sensitivity to near-ties and uncertainty about the number of cycles.

Portugal–Euro Area DSGE Modelling and Macroprudential Policy

With Paul Levine, Diana Lima, Duarte Maia and Maryam Mirfatah.

A two-bloc Portugal–euro area DSGE programme, including housing, financial frictions and macroprudential interactions. It combines structural modelling with estimation and policy experiments to assess domestic responses to euro-area disturbances.

Musicology

Alongside my work in economics, I pursue an independent research program on the musical and cultural legacy of the Rosado Pinto family, particularly Celestino and Maria Adelaide Rosado Pinto, and their contribution to musical life in Setúbal, Portugal.

The programme combines archival research, music bibliography, and historical musicology. Current work focuses on documenting and cataloguing dispersed collections, developing a bilingual digital inventory, and investigating the survival, publication, circulation, and reception of musical and ethnographic sources.